Is Chris Osgood Really a 400 Win Goalie(re-post)

I posted this originally at OverTheBoards on December 28, 2010, a day after Chris Osgood recorded win #400 against the Colorado Avalanche. There is some speculation that he is going to retire later today so I figured I would re-post it. Enjoy

Last night Chris Osgood notched a 4-3 win over the Colorado Avalanche and, in doing so, notched the 400th regular season win of his career. He became only the 10th person in NHL history to do so. Only Ed Belfour(Will be eligible this upcoming year[Belfour has since been inducted into the Hall of Fame]), Curtis Joseph(still 2 years away from eligibility), and Martin Brodeur(still active) have eclipsed 400 win and are not in the hall. Osgood’s win has sparked controversy all over the blogosphere as to whether he is a Hall of Fame worthy goaltender or if his wins are nothing more than the product of playing for the Detroit Red Wings in 14 of his 18 seasons. Below are the cases for and against.

Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer:

• In his 18 seasons, Osgood has won 53.9% of the games he has played in. That is good enough to place him second on the list of 400+ win goaltenders. Only Brodeur(55.1%) is better. Even if he does not play well the remainder of the season he should still finish in the top 3.
• He has twelve 20+ win seasons, and 5 30+ win seasons. One of those 30 win seasons was a 31 win mark in 2003-2004 when he played for a St. Louis Blues team that finished with 39 wins. Another came in 2001-2002 when he won 32 games for the New York Islanders
• He has won 57% of his playoff games. For comparison Martin Brodeur has won 54% of his playoff games
• He is a 3 time Stanley Cup Winner and 3 time All-Star
• Replaced future Hall Of Famer Dominick Hasek in the 2008 Playoffs and led the Red Wings to the Stanley Cup. In the process he lost only 4 games and held his GAA under 2 and his save percentage above .910. Oh he was also 35 when he did this.

Chris Osgood is NOT a Hall of Famer

• In 14 of his seasons he has had Nicklas Lidstrom in front of him.
• He has only 50 shut outs. Compared to the list of 400+ win goaltenders only Grant Fuhr has less with 25. Only Fuhr, Joseph, and Osgood have less than 6o shutouts. All the goaltenders in the Hall who have less Shutouts than Osgood have a bit more hardware than Osgood.

I honestly went into this article expecting to thoroughly prove that Osgood was not Hall of Fame worthy, but I don’t really believe that anymore. People will go on and on about that he was nothing more than somebody who benefited from the incredible teams Detroit has had over the years, but I am starting to believe he was a piece of that incredible. While it certainly helped his numbers to have a stellar D corps in front of him, it wasn’t as if he didn’t need to be good.

If there were no names on the ballots then Osgood’s will probably read something like this:
400+ Wins
50(at least) Shutouts
Less than 2.50 GAA
Better than .900 Save Percentage
3 Stanley Cups
7 Consecutive Seasons with 20+ wins
70+ Playoff wins

Now looking at that, can you tell me how he doesn’t deserve Hall of Fame honors?

The Blue Line Carousel

With the resigning of Karl Alzner(finally) last week, the Capitals currently have 8 defencemen under contract for this season. Word around the blogosphere(if you aren't aware of this you are clearly not reading the important ones) is that Tom Poti will start the year on the LTIR. Given that we are over the Cap after the Alzner contract, this is extremely useful. This is a similar situation to what we started the year like last year, except this time it isn't lowly Tyler Sloan that is the odd-man out. Given the assumption that Green, Hamrlik, Alzner, and Carlson are all guaranteed starters, who doesn't find a jersey in their stall come opening night: Schultz? Wideman? Erskine

Let's start with Erskine. Of the three I believe to be the odd-men out, Erskine makes the least(1.5). He also plays the hardest in my opinion. He led the Caps blueliners with 166 hits. He averaged almost 5 hits/30 min which is comparable to Ovechkin. Let's also remember that his fight with then Thrasher, now Devil Eric Boulton was generally accepted as the best fight last year. I see no reason to keep the toughest defenceman out of this lineup.

Nest there's Wideman, who the Caps acquired as the trade deadline last year from Florida for who-care's-prospect and a 3rd round pick. He was limited to only 14 games last year and 0 in the playoffs due to the hematoma he suffered in a nasty collision with Tuomo Ruutu of the Hurricanes in late March. GMGM has said that he is back to full mobility and is rehabbing. With over 2 month still to go, I believe he should be okay by opening night. He struggled defensively last year in his first couple of games but he was starting to look comfortable just as he went down. Offensively he was still able to net 1 goal and pick up 6 helpers. He has 6 years of NHL experience under him and has scored 30+ points in each of his last 4 years. If he is healthy, I see no reason not to pair him with Erskine.

That leaves us with Schultz. For what it's worth(I believe diddly) Schultz is only a year removed from a league leading +50 rating. He played nearly all of that year playing alongside Mike Green(9 EV G) and was frequently on the ice with Ovechkin(37 EV G) and Backstrom(22 EV). When compared to last year's numbers, where he skated with varying lines, his rating dropped to +6 which was T-8 on the team and roughly 158th best in the league. BB was quoted earlier in the month as to hinting to pairing Green and Hamrlik together. Without Green and Ovechkin to at least make his +/- look good, Schultz brings little to the table. He is way too slow. He uses the body when the stick will do and tries to use the stick when he needs to check.

Regardless of who Boudreau decides to go with, I have to believe at least 1 of the 8 will not be around after the trade deadline. This could be expedited depending on how well Orlov does down in Hershey, which would be just fine with me.

A Change In Direction

Since Bruce's first offseason as head coach for the Capitals, there has been a pretty apparent way of thinking: stand firm. Every year we watched as GMGM would re-sign the players we fell in love with and choose not to venture far into the free agent market. In fact since the Summer of 2008, the only "big" free agents we had seen sign in Washington were Jose Theodore and Mike Knuble.

Already it is clear that GMGM has realized the error in not venturing into the open market. Most Caps' fans sat in front of their computers smiling as we finally opened the wallets to bring in the likes of Troy Brouwer(for grit), Joel Ward(for playoff success), Roman Hamrlik(to stabilize the D corp), and Vokoun(a bona fide #1), and Jeff Halpern(Former Cap/Leadership). We had every reason to be thrilled. Then the smiles began to fade. Varlamov found himself traded to Colorado(though props to GMGM for getting what he got). Matt Bradley and Boyd Gordon, two huge fan favorites, found themselves in Florida and Phoenix respectively. And just last week Eric Fehr was dealt to Winnipeg for what will essentially be cap space. We must also always remember to include the ever-present rumors of Alex Semin to [insert random team]. At least for me, it is hard to see these players go.

Yesterday I went and manually corrected all the rosters on NHL 11. Now granted this was a simple video game but I couldn't help but feel very little for these new players. Will Brouwer/Ward/Halpern score more goals than Fehr/Bradley/Laich? Absolutely. Will Vokoun win more games than Varlamov? Past stats and injuries say Yes. It still is going to take some time to get used to the notable absences.

From a business perspective this was a genius move though. Keep all the fan favorites to build up the dwindling fan base(as of 2007) and then once you hit the top make the championship winning moves and hope the fans stay too. From the many I have had a pleasure to meet on twitter, I know the true ones will.

19 v 90

Nobody can doubt the chemistry that has appeared between Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Ovechkin over the past 3+ years. Since Backstrom came into the league, they have played the majority of the time together. In that time Backstrom has recorded 86 goals and 227 assists, while Ovechkin has recorded 199 goals and 206 assists. With Backstrom recently missing his first NHL game, Ovechkin has been forced to work entirely with out his Swedish running mate. With one Swede out, Bruce elected to give rookie Swede Marcus Johansson the opportunity to play with the captain. The young kid is clearly making the most of this chance.

In the four games that Johansson has played with Ovechkin he has recorded at least a point in each game with 2 goals and 3 assists. Ovechkin, meanwhile, has similar numbers with 3 goals and 2 assists. Although this may be on a small scale, it is worth noting that this is a much better pace than either of these two have been on for the earlier parts of the season. Could there be a possibility of Backstrom playing second fiddle to the rookie Swede?

The Breakdown

• Faceoffs: Johansson's is improving in the dot but his 43.1% is just not good enough to be a first line center. Advantage: Backstrom
• Skating: Both Backstrom and Johansson possess great skating ability. Johansson brings much more speed to the first line. Advantage: Johansson
• Intelligence: This is pretty much a no-contest. Backstrom has been in the league 3 years longer than Johansson so advantage: Backstrom
• Intangibles: This is a bit difficult because it is such a vague term. The chemistry that Backstrom has with Ovechkin is something that Johansson can't pick up overnight. However that chemistry has has very little success this season. The newness of MoJo and Ovie is something that has been showing success. Maybe it is Johansson's speed or the fact that their gameplan was for Backstrom but I have to say advantage: Johansson.

How much of a copout is that? A 2-2 tie. If Arnott comes back healthy and you choose MoJo over Backstrom, then you would think Arnott moves to the third line. I am not really for taking Arnott away from Semin. But I can't see that being sufficient reasoning to give Backstrom the #1 center back. I wouldn't totally be against having them both play the top line, if they can prove their grittiness. Personally I am not looking forward to having to rework our line so close to playoff time.

Dredging the Island

At around the 18:00 minute mark of the 3rd period, with the Caps trailing 1-0, my step father sent me a text. It was a satirical remark about the "offensive juggernaut that is the Capitals." Of course Jason Arnott would feed Brooks Laich a minute later sending the Capitals to OT where Ovechkin would eventually seal it with a beauty of a goal.

I do not see much reason to worry about the near loss last night. When you add 3 brand new guys to the lineup you expect to take a step back. Jason Arnott clearly is developing some great chemistry with Laich and Semin, which came to fruition in the game tying goal.

Sturm also seemed to blend well on the top line. He got sent in on a nice breakaway midway through the first and they had some of the best cycles the first line has seen in a while, even if no goals came from it.

As good as Sturm and Arnott were, Wideman was just about that bad. He frequently set up on the wrong side of Erskine, and had quite a few stretch passes lead to scoring chances for the Islanders. Her should count himself luck it was Carlson and not him that gave the Islanders their goal.

The game might have lacked intensity for 59:00. It might have put a few fans to sleep, but these games are just continual proof that this team possesses the ability to grind games out. That is why I think this team is better suited for the playoffs than last year's.

The Overhaul

Going into the week before the 2011 NHL Trade Deadline, Caps fans looked at the team in 1 of 2 ways. Either they thought the roster was just fine and it was simply an change of attitude that was needed, or they thought that the Caps were missing something. I guess I fell in the latter of the two categories but was quite surprised of the 3 moves that the Caps pulled off in the past week.

Marco Sturm could turn out to be quite the steal though I'm less inclined to think that. When he has been healthy he has been able to chip in a goal every 3-4 games. Unfortunately health has been a big question mark for him. He has only played 17 games this year due to a nagging knee injury. If he can battle through that then he has a good amount of experience to add to the second line. I would have to say he is a rental for sure but he should still be good for around 6/7 goals if he can stay healthy.

Waiving DJ King is something that makes me a little angry. This is only because it just makes losing Della-Rovere so much worse.

The Arnott/Steckel trade could end up being as great as the Fedorov/Ruth deal a few years back. Arnott definitley gives us the 2C we have been looking for with a ton of playoff experience and success. While I do not expect him to have the same effect on Semin as Fedorov, I do expect for him to clear up space for Semin to do what he does best.

It does suck to see a heart and soul guy like Steckel go, especially since he was arguably the greatest faceoff man in the league. Unfortunately that was really all he brought to the Caps. Although we will always have Game 6 OT and the Winter Classic to remember him fondly.

The Wideman deal I feel is really flying under the radar. As much as fans have been crying for a defenseman since last year, I honestly though GMGM would stand pat on the blueline, having acquired Hannan earlier this year. This was a move than was made simply out of the possibility that both Green and Poti could not return this year. The Caps have said that Green will miss a few weeks but head injuries are a funny thing. Unless we see something crazy from Poti, this move has at least signaled the end of his time in DC.

Here are my line combination predictions. The first set are with current injuries in mind, the second set are if the team is at full strength. Remember that with Backstrom's current injury he has been relieved of nearly all faceoff duties

Injury
Ovechkin-Laich-Backstrom
Sturm-Arnott-Semin
Chimera-Johansson-Knuble
Hendricks-Gordon-Bradley

Hannan-Schultz
Carlson-Alzner
Wideman-Erskine

Full Health
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Laich
Semin-Arnott-Fehr
Sturm-Johansson-Knuble
Chimera-Gordon-Hendricks

Green-Hannan
Carlson-Alzner
Wideman-Schultz.